The only player with 3,000 passing and 500 rushing yards last season, at a higher passer rating than his MVP year. He finished third.

He lost by five points. New England then added A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs and Alijah Vera-Tucker, and the schedule that flattered the record gets harder.

Two wins and a second place already. The staff around him is new, which is the variable, not the quarterback.

The reigning winner returns Nacua and Adams and gains Garrett on the other side of the ball. He is 38, which is the only line in the case that matters.

He is the book's largest liability because turf toe cost him ten games and nothing else about the profile changed.

The award has not gone to a quarterback returning from a December ACL tear. That sentence is the entire argument against him and there is not a second one.

Two conditions. The Chargers have to clear Denver in the division, and Alt has to play sixteen games. Neither is exotic.

Inside the market's top ten again, on a roster that returns intact and a division that has not been settled in August for years.

The first NFC name on the board. Every Prescott case has ended at the same place, which is winning the East.

A 27 to 7 touchdown-to-interception line in year two. The distance from efficient to voted-on is January relevance, and Chicago has not had any.

He threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns in the NFC Championship Game and does not appear in the market's top ten. That is unusual for a quarterback who just won it.

The board has moved toward him for the first time since the rookie contract. The roster around him moved first.

4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 106.5 passing EPA. He is a 35-to-1 shot because Detroit has Gibbs, not because the numbers are short.

He watched the conference title game from the sideline. Denver's defense means his offense only has to be good, which historically is not how this award is won.

Fifty-to-one, and the defense means eleven wins is reachable without a career year. The case requires the career year anyway.

The shortest non-quarterback price on the board. The last non-quarterback to win did it in 2012, and he was the whole offense.

A receiving triple crown inside a twelve-win Cincinnati season is the only version of a receiver MVP voters have ever half-entertained.

Champion, hundred-to-one, and the target share of a team that just lost its lead back. Three things that do not usually appear together.

New coordinator, identical personnel, and an offense with a full season of visible room. The narrative is prewritten if the numbers arrive.

A defensive player has not won since 1986. A twenty-plus-sack season on the league's most-watched roster is the closest anyone has come to building the case since.